Assessment and forecasting of reliability of rails in various operational conditions

Method of calculation of reliability of rails are presented in article. Research of refusals and durability of rails on two directions of the West Siberian management of infrastructure for sites of a way with different operational characteristics is conducted. Dependence of a gamma percent resource of rails on axial loading of cars and the plan of a way is received. Conclusions about a possibility of reaching of the passed tonnage of rails in 1500 million tons gross are given.