Prediction of energy efficiency indicator for locomotives

A significant share of JSCo «Russian Railways» expenses falls on the purchase of diesel fuel and electric power for train traction. In this connection, the task of ensuring rational consumption of energy resources acquires special importance. Its solution is impossible without a well-functioning system for planning and forecasting the energy efficiency of locomotives. The article proposes a method for predicting specific energy consumption (SEC) for train traction, based on determining predicted values of transportation work and fuel and energy resources consumption by extrapolating time series, which consists in spreading the trends in changes in the values established in the past to the future period. A distinctive features of the developed method is the determination of seasonality indices and consideration of the rhythm of changes in the indicators. In cases where the forecast period includes months of the first or fourth quarters, a formula is proposed for determining the forecast value of the SEC, taking into account the influence of the atmospheric air temperature. The calculations performed showed that the application of the proposed method for structural divisions with different volume and nature of transportation work and the level of the SEC ensures a sufficiently high accuracy of train traction energy cost forecasting. The method is included in the Methodology for Analysis and Prediction of Fuel and Energy Resources Consumption for Traction of Trains developed by OmGUPS and implemented in the railroad network of the Russian Federation.