Substantiation of reconstruction parametersrailway for introducing speed movementwith account uncertainty initial information

Increasing speeds on existing railway lines is one of the main challenges facing the Belarusian railway. Through the territory of the republic there are two transport corridors connecting Russia and Western Europe, as well as Ukraine and the Baltic countries. In all of the above countries, the increase in speed on the railways is very fast. Belarus can not stand aside. However, to increase the speed, it is not always enough initial information. To identify the necessary data, methods of decision theory are used. The integral probabilistic criterion method (CPI) allows one to substantiate the road parameters necessary for introducing high-speed traffic on existing lines. The proposed method of decision-making on the choice of technical parameters and equipment of the line, taking into account the uncertainty in the re-design for the high-speed movement of passenger trains. The initial data for determining the CPI is a risk matrix or a matrix of particular criteria. When using the risk matrix for each design decision option i, the dependences of the expectation of losses on the probability of realization of the design conditions p varying in the range from 0 to 1 are compiled. In the article on the proposed methodology, the reduced costs for the variants of design solutions are determined under all possible design conditions. Using these costs, a matrix of private criteria and a risk matrix are formed. A comparison was made of the design decision options for the integral probabilistic criterion, using which the recommendation of choosing the option is unambiguous and is accompanied by a quantitative assessment, which facilitates the task to the decision maker.